Forecast Last Updated at Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 12:58PM

Cool/Nice Now; Wary Eye on Ian

Cool high pressure dominates our weather through Thursday and into Friday. We have lots of sun but cool temperatures--6 to 8 degrees below seasonal averages. Some valley frost is possible. But all eyes are in Ian in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. It's poised to make a wreck of the Florida Gulf Coast near Tampa; however, the path and pace beyond Florida is more uncertain. Wee our Forecast Discussion Section for the range of possibilities for impact here in the Saturday/Sunday time frame.

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Tuesday Hi: 65 Lo: 40 Sunny; Seasonably cool; NW wind 5-15 mph and breezy

Wednesday Hi: 63 Lo: 42 Mostly sunny through high clouds; Continued cool; NW wind 5-15 mph, becoming North Wed. night

Thursday Hi: 64 Lo: 44 Still lots of sun through high clouds Continued seasonably cool; NE wind 5-15 mph

Friday Hi: 63 Lo: 51 Increasing clouds; Rain develops Fri. night

Saturday Hi: 63 Lo: 53 Overcast & rainy, heavy at times

Further Out

Sunday - Overcast; Continuing rain from Ian; High in the mid 60s; Low in the lower 50s
Monday - Mostly cloudy; Rain showers remain possible; High in the lower 60s; Low in the lower 50s

Forecast Discussion

The front that moved through Sunday stretches from Cape Cod to Florida and west to South Texas. We have 3-4 days in the control of cool high pressure currently centered in the Northern Plains but sliding east to the Great Lakes Wednesday (and New England Thursday).

As high pressure digs into the Southeast, we have lots of sun and cool temperatures. Some valley frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings. High clouds will filter in Wednesday and Thursday as well.

Hurricane Ian crossed Western Cuba Monday night, heading north. It strengthens to a Category 4 storm today with sustained winds to 130 mph. Ian continues to move north and likely takes a zig northeast into the Tampa region Wednesday night. From there, the speed and path is less certain, the official NHC path takes it toward Western NC; however: 1) some model guidance is farther east, closer to the coast, and 2) some guidance has a slower exit taking a slow-moving remnant low just to our south/west. Thus, a wide range of outcomes remains possible for us. That range is between heavy rain (slower, direct hit or to our west) and a good ole fashioned soaking rain (eastern path and faster). Saturday and Sunday will have the greatest impacts with rain beginning Friday night and possibly lasting well into Monday). There's no reason today to speculate beyond this.

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